Deke: We need a night off just to stop our losing streak. We need a rainout.
Crash: I can get us a rainout.
— Bull Durham, before Crash Davis turns on the sprinklers overnight to create a “rainout.”
In real life, the Mets need a break as much as Crash Davis’ fictional Durham Bulls did. And Tony Clark and Rob Manfred can get them a lockout, which almost certainly is coming from Manfred and the owners if no new collective bargaining agreement is reached by the Wednesday midnight deadline.
There are no indicators yet that a shutdown will be avoided. Just the opposite — the industry is bracing for it with a certainty that Thursday will follow Wednesday.
If it comes, then there will be no business allowed with players, notably no free-agent deals and no trades. That will be horrible for the industry for many reasons — including that free agents will have to wait (likely months) to resume negotiations to find out where they are playing in 2022, and teams will have a pretty tough time marketing their clubs and selling tickets during a freeze.
It will be a bad situation for just about everyone and every team. But you can make a case that it will actually benefit a club that currently — among other things — has no manager, almost no coaching staff and is in desperate need of focused time for a new GM to acquaint himself with his co-workers while trying to forge a culture and build processes going forward.
In other words, if the industry is really going to get shut down for at least two months (the most likely Over/Under), the Mets have plenty to do. The new GM, Billy Eppler, recognized the probability, and in his administration’s baby-step phase has been overloading his workdays with player acquisitions — such as Friday night’s free agency spree that brought Mark Canha, Eduardo Escobar and Starling Marte. The understanding is the free-agent and trade spigots are likely to turn off by mid-week.
At that point, Eppler can more intently and intensely fixate on the other issues. The biggest will be finding a manager to succeed Luis Rojas. The freeze will allow Eppler to broaden his search. After all, once you reach Dec. 1 without a manager, does it really matter if you get to Christmas? I think Eppler is open-minded enough to see whether someone he is unfamiliar with wows him. But until proven otherwise, I would suspect that Brad Ausmus and Joe Espada begin the serious portion of this search as huge favorites.
After all, these jobs often go to a candidate with which the head of baseball operations has preexisting comfort and knowledge. Eppler’s late hiring and the need to play catch-up should only intensify his desire for familiarity. For example, I expect he will hire a few former co-workers for the front office to help ease the transition. And the manager is the face and messenger for the organization. I would be surprised if Eppler wades off the grid for that role.
Think, for example, how Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi picked Gabe Kapler to replace Bruce Bochy after the 2019 season. Kapler had basically been run out of Philadelphia after two years managing there. He seemed unhirable at that moment. But Kapler had been central in recruiting Zaidi from the A’s front office to be the Dodgers assistant GM after the 2014 season. The two worked together for three years and bonded.
Zaidi ignored industry opinion and went with his convictions about the person — convictions that only could be forged with long-term knowledge and not a managerial interview or three. In his second season, Kapler led the Giants to a franchise-record 107 wins and captured NL Manager of the Year.
If Ausmus emerges for the Mets, it would be via the same kind of personal bonds with Eppler. Ausmus managed four years in Detroit, won the AL Central title his first season with the handoff of Jim Leyland’s excellent team. But he did not get the Tigers back to the playoffs. Eppler, as the Angels GM, hired him after the 2018 season to replace another championship manager, Mike Scioscia.
Ausmus’ lone Angels season was a disaster, notably because Tyler Skaggs died in a hotel room. In the aftermath it was revealed he had high levels of opioids in his system that were provided illegally by a team employee. The Angels lost their most games (90) this century. The owner, Arte Moreno, fired Ausmus against Eppler’s wishes and hired Joe Maddon.
Eppler never held Ausmus responsible for that year. And if you like Ausmus, it is because if you drew up qualities for a good manager, he seems to have them, including intelligence and adaptability in taking in information. But he hasn’t been a good manager. At least not yet. He can seem above it, dismissive. Is that a perception or a reality? Is he like Kapler — who seemed an unprepared New Age professor in Philly — and just needs the right situation?
Espada worked in the Yankees front office with Eppler in 2014 and was the third-base coach in 2015 (Eppler left as assistant GM to be the Angels GM after the 2015 season). Espada was Joe Girardi’s third-base coach in New York (small world alert: Girardi succeeded Kapler in Philly), and was bench coach in Houston for A.J. Hinch in 2018-19 and Dusty Baker in 2020-21. So he has been surrounded by good managers and winning. He also knows what instability looks like, having served as the third-base coach for five managers in four seasons (2010-13) with the Marlins. The Mets will be hiring a fourth manager in five years.
Espada has been a hot candidate for a couple of years, but has not gotten the big job. Are those doing the search finding something unappealing? Or does he simply need someone who knows him and is willing to risk, for example, handing a huge-market team to a first-timer?
Eppler is almost certainly about to have time to widen his search. But he also has lots to address in this coming dead period, from coaches to culture. It is a gift early in his administration. He needs to manage it well.
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